Here is a table showing sales and the change from the previous year since the peak in 2005:
| Year | New Home Sales (000s) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | 1,283 | |
| 2006 | 1,051 | -18% |
| 2007 | 776 | -26% |
| 2008 | 485 | -38% |
| 2009 | 375 | -23% |
| 2010 | 323 | -14% |
| 2011 | 306 | -5% |
| 20121 | 360 | 18% |
| 12012 pace through July. | ||
This is still a very low level of sales, but clearly new home saleshave bottomed and are starting to recover. I don't expect sales to increase to 2005 levels, but something close to 800,000 is possible once the number of distressed sales declines to more normal levels.
Read more at http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/08/new-home-sales-and-distressing-gap.html
It's interesting to note that, for all the hubbub about the red hot market, no houses available, inventory shrinking, and all that other stuff, this is the first year since 2005 we'll see an upward change in the number of new home sales. And yet, even with this upward trend, they will still build fewer new homes than they did in 2009.
Wow. and Yikes.
But if the author's projections are correct, 2013 should be a very good year...
-Chris
